Good school attendance is associated with all sorts of good educational outcomes, especially higher grades and higher test scores. It’s obvious: if you’re not showing up for school, you’re not going to learn as much. But only 17 states track and report chronic absenteeism data, according to the Data Quality Campaign and Attendance Works, a non-profit organization that advocates for more focus on absenteeism data and ideas for getting students to come to school.
“People aren’t tracking the right data now. They’re paying attention to average daily attendance and truancy, but not the kids who are at academic risk,” said Phyllis Jordan, a spokeswoman for Attendance Works. Truancy is generally defined as unexcused absences, but many chronically absent children don’t get captured in the truancy data because they had a reason for missing school or a parent-signed slip excusing their absence.
A recent presentation by a state education official from Hawaii, one of the 17 states that does track chronic absenteeism, showed just how misleading it is to focus on average daily attendance rates. Dave Moyer, speaking at the 2014 National Center for Education Statistics data conference on July 31, 2014, found that even at Hawaiian public schools where 95 percent of the students show up every day, chronic absenteeism can be a gigantic problem where as many as one in four kids – 25 percent — are missing 15 or more school days a year. Hawaii schools boast of 95 percent daily attendance rates. But when Moyer first drilled down into the data, he found that more than one in five students throughout the state were chronically absent.
It’s worth pausing a moment to understand how these seemingly opposing statistics – high daily attendance and high chronic absenteeism — can coexist. Imagine a school with 100 students and a 95 percent daily attendance rate. On day one, 95 of them show up and five play hooky. Then imagine that the same five students play hooky 15 days in a row. Already, you have 5 percent chronic absenteeism just 15 days into the school year. Now pretend those truant children decide to mend their ways and attend school again. And grab a new group of five kids (from the 95 that had been attending every day) to skip school. Again, you still have a 95 percent attendance rate. But if this second group of 5 skips school for 15 days, then you’d have a total of 10 kids, or 10%, of the student body that would be considered chronically absent. That’s after only 30 days. You could theoretically get to 20% chronic absenteeism just 60 days into the school year.
In other words, it’s a small group of, say, 20 students who are frequently missing school. Maybe only five of them miss school on any particular day. Most of the remaining 80 percent have fairly stellar attendance records. And the school can still boast of a 95 percent attendance rate overall.
Since too few states track it, it’s hard to say if Hawaii’s absenteeism problem is worse than, better than or about the same as the national average. Even the states that track absenteeism have different definitions for what it means to be chronically absent. Hawaii’s threshold of 15 days is believed to be one of the lowest in the nation. Most other states or districts wait until 18 days, or until 10 percent of the 180-day school year is missed, before labeling a student “chronically absent.” A 2012 Johns Hopkins study estimated that 10 to 15 percent of students in the U.S. are chronically absent each year.
Solving absenteeism is another matter. “I don’t know how to fix the problem,” Moyer said. Moyer found that the reasons that kids don’t show up for school are many and varied. Some students suffer from asthma and have trouble coming to school on what Hawaiians call “voggy” days, when volcanic particles are thick in the air. On the big island of Hawaii, a two-mile hike down a steep mountain to the bus stop can be too arduous in bad weather. Bullied kids can be too scared to go to school. Others simply cut school to go to the beach.
Race and ethnicity seem to be a factor, too. Native Hawaiian, Micronesian and Samoan students were disproportionately represented among the chronically absent population.
But Hawaii has had some success in lowering chronic absenteeism statewide from 21.8 percent to 19.7 percent over the last few years, after making principals accountable for it. Five percent of an elementary’s school performance rating is now based on its chronic absenteeism rate. One community noticed that students were hanging out at the Seven-Eleven instead of showing up for school on time, so they persuaded the convenience store to shut down at 7:30 in the morning. “One Seven-Eleven closing had a big effect,” said Moyer. “The best solutions are local.”
So which days of the year are students least likely to cut school? Moyer counted attendance on every day of the school year and found two of the highest attendance rates on Halloween and Valentine’s Day. “Really, the takeaway here is that candy drives attendance,” Moyer jokingly concluded. (Click on Moyer’s chart below to see a larger version).
The main reason for annual standardized tests is to figure out how much kids are learning each year. But when New York released its 2014 Common Core test results on August 14, state education officials were selective in their data reporting and did not disclose actual student scores. Instead they released only the percentage of children hitting various proficiency thresholds. That makes it difficult for outsiders to understand how much New York students improved after their second year of Common Core curriculum and testing.
“Performance levels can be misleading. They can mask the actual score changes that students are making,” said Robert Rothman, senior fellow at the Alliance for Excellent Education in Washington, D.C.
Rothman explained that you can have a big jump in proficiency with only a small test score gain if there are lot of students close to the proficiency cut point. Conversely, if students are far behind, they can have giant test score gains, but not jump over the proficiency threshold. That makes it particularly difficult to see if the most vulnerable students, those in the bottom 10 or 25 percent, are improving.
Despite confusion over how much New York students are improving, New York City’s small gains in proficiency (almost 5 percentage points in math and 1 percentage point in reading) appear to be real progress, experts say, because they mirror similar improvements on national tests (specifically the Trial Urban District Assessment portion of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)). On the NAEP, New York City has typically shown a point or two annual gain in math, but flat reading scores. Prior to 2013, when Common Core testing was introduced, New York students had posted much larger gains on the local state tests than on national tests, calling into question how valid test score gains were during the Bloomberg administration.
“No assessment system can tell you the whole story. When you have two different systems, and they’re telling you the same thing, then you have more confidence that the story they’re telling you is correct,” said Henry Braun, the Boisi Professor of education and public policy at Boston College. He concluded that it was a good thing to see small improvement in the second year of Common Core testing, but that it’s going to be a “hard, slow slog” to get the majority of students to the proficient level with only about a third hitting that threshold now.
At the same time, the test-score gap between New York City and the other four largest cities in the state jumps out. New York City has embraced the concept of higher Common Core education standards, and experts think its enthusiasm may be behind the city’s decent showing on the tests. Although the city has outperformed the state’s other cities for years, experts believe that the New York City district is further along than other metropolitan areas in introducing new Common Core lessons into the classroom.
While many political leaders around the country are bowing to public pressure to retreat from Common Core, both Mayor Bill de Blasio and the New York City schools chancellor, Carmen Farina, pointedly confirmed their commitment to Common Core when they announced the test results. “We want to aim high,” said Mayor de Blasio. Both promised to invest more in teacher training to help implement the new standards in the classroom.
This chart below shows how New York City’s students, the majority of whom are low-income minorities, score near the state average with roughly a third of the students scoring proficiently in math and reading. But students in Rochester, Syracuse, Buffalo and Yonkers (where most students are also low-income) are well behind. In Rochester, the weakest performing big city, less than 7 percent of the student population in grades four through eight hit the proficient mark.
Chart created by Jill Barshay using Google Spreadsheets. Data from pages 20 and 32 in the Engage NY August 2014 PowerPoint presentation, Measuring Student Progress in Grades 3-8 English Language Arts and Mathematics.
“The cities in the northern tier are so far below New York City, way, way behind. That ought to be a clarion call to bring to those cities the secret sauce that New York has been using for the past several years,” said Braun.
The city’s Common Core roll out hasn’t been without problems, though. Last school year, teachers throughout the state, including in New York City, complained that curriculum and textbooks were late to arrive and that they had not received enough training in the new standards to teach them effectively.
Thanks to the glorification of Silicon Valley riches and a desire to inspire more of the next generation of children to pursue science and technology careers, computer coding instruction for children is spreading like wildfire around the United States. Code.org , an industry-financed group that is promoting computer coding in schools, says that 31,000 kindergarten through eighth-grade classrooms are using its course, reaching 1.3 million students. It plans to train another 10,000 teachers to teach computer coding this school year.
But experts involved in computer coding education lament that it remains a boy-dominated activity. Mitchel Resnick, an MIT professor, developed Scratch, a simplified computer programming language that allows children to create and share interactive stories, games and animations, and says that Scratch use has tripled over the past year. Scratch is aimed at eight- to 16-year-old children, but both younger kids and older adults use it, too. But boys significantly outnumber girls, 59 percent to 35 percent. (About 6 percent didn’t disclose their gender). Code.org says that 40 percent of its students are girls. And both organizations believe they’ve attracted a higher percentage of girls than the typical after-school computer programming club or elective class does.
Resnick has found, however, that girls are particularly active in commenting on projects posted by users of his site. “At one point, we looked at the top 10 people,” he said, referring to the 10 people who had commented most frequently. “Eight of them were girls or young women,” he said.
Overall, girls account for 44 percent of the 1.2 million comments posted about computer programming projects on Scratch every month. Girls outnumber boys more than two to one in comments within Scratch’s studio area, where kids experiment with role-playing and story-telling games.
One hypothesis is that when you make computer coding more social, it engages girls more. And perhaps that will be a way to attract more girls to computer science. Resnick believes that girls will continue to be attracted to computer coding if they see it as a natural extension of their interests, be they art or drama, and that the programmable video animation is a way of expressing their creativity, instead of being seen as an exercise in mathematical logic.
Scratch is one of many children’s programming languages, including Microsoft’s Kodu and Gamestar Mechanic, which are rapidly gaining in popularity. Most of the kids using Scratch design animated videos or computer games; Resnick calls these creations “projects,” instead of “computer programs,” and says users are posting about 10,000 projects every day. After more than a decade of being largely ignored by school age children, “coding has entered the popular culture,” he said. Here is a link to Scratch usage statistics. For more background on the resurgence of computer programing, see this May 2014 New York Times piece.
Resnick also developed a new free iPad app, ScratchJr, aimed at five to seven year olds. Released to the public on July 30, 2014, the app allows children to snap together graphical blocks to make characters move, jump, dance and sing. Separately, Resnick is working on producing a tablet version of Scratch, which is currently only available on a laptop or desktop computer.
Most people — and especially parents of 20-something college graduates — know that the job market is particularly tough right now for recent college grads. But so tough that about half of them are either unemployed or underemployed?
That is what analysts for the New York Federal Reserve Bank of New York calculated, in a January, 2014, report, “Are Recent College Graduates Finding Good Jobs?” Defining “underemployed as working in low-paid jobs that don’t require college degrees, the analysts, Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Yaqin Su, found that roughly 6 percent of recent college graduates, aged 22 to 27, were unemployed at the beginning of 2013 and 44 percent were underemployed. The unemployment figure has likely dropped since then, along with the overall drop in unemployment. But it’s quite possible that underemployment — the percentage of college grads who are in jobs that don’t require college degrees — hasn’t changed much.
Curiously enough, this New York Fed study was largely a rebuttal to the popular notion that the job market is much worse for college grads today. The authors looked at two decades of data and found that the combination of unemployment and underemployment is roughly the same today as it was for college graduates in the early 1990s who also had to seek jobs during a recession. By age 30, the majority of the 1990s cohort eventually found better work, and the same could happen for the current crop of college graduates.
But the authors also pointed to some ominous signs. They drilled down into the data of the underemployed and noted that it’s more likely for recent graduates to be in a low-wage or a part-time job than in the past. In other words, there’s a smaller share of college graduates in well-paying non-college jobs, such as electrician, dental hygenist or mechanic. And there’s a rising share of college graduates in the lowest paid of the non-college jobs, such as bartender, food server and cashier. That could make it harder for these young adults to transition to higher skilled jobs in the next few years. Time will tell.
I emailed with Harvard professor Richard B. Freeman, one of the leading U.S. labor economists, about this. He believes things are also worse now for American college graduates because of international competition. “The college graduate situation has a global dimension — 6 million bachelor’s graduates in China that affect the U.S. market as well — which is very different than in the past,” he wrote.
It’s worth pausing a moment to understand how economists think about underemployment, an admittedly fuzzy term. The New York Federal Reserve used the Department of Labor’s O*Net surveys. If at least 50 percent of the respondents working in a particular occupation say it requires a college degree, then the New York Fed labeled the occupation a college job. And it called a college graduate “underemployed” if he or she worked in a job for which less than half the respondents said a bachelor’s degree was necessary. Under this definition, every college-educated real estate broker, registered nurse and Shakespearean actor is classified as underemployed.
Sometimes fields change and become more sophisticated. Twenty years ago, some jobs didn’t require college degrees that now do. My own profession — journalism — is one where many people didn’t have a college degree a couple generations ago. Now, even O*Net says reporters need a college degree. One question interesting labor economists is whether the employers hiring young adults can be more selective than the job itself warrants, and can demand college degrees simply because they have an excess of college graduates to choose from. Many elementary schools in the New York City area, for example, have the luxury of being able to demand that any teacher’s aide have a B.A. But O*Net says that the degree isn’t necessary for that job. Over time, that could change, if enough teacher’s aides respond that a college degree is necessary to be a teacher’s aide, even though you could perform the job superbly without one.
“In recent years, we have increased credential requirements for jobs that haven’t changed that much,” said Richard Vedder, director of the Center for College Affordability and Productivity and an economics professor emeritus at Ohio University.
Vedder’s own analysis of underemployment in January 2013 preceded the NY Fed’s research, but came up with similar findings — that 48 percent of college graduates are underemployed. In “Why Are Recent College Graduates Underemployed?” by Vedder, Christopher Denhart and Jonathan Robe, the authors used the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “Education and training assignments by detailed occupation, 2012” to determine which jobs would make a college-educated person “underemployed.”
Seeing big numbers like that can make one’s college-educated eyeballs pop. But the New York Fed points out that a third of all college graduates — not just recent ones — have always been categorized as underemployed. Think of all the college-educated real estate brokers, ad salesmen, nurses. Not so tragic. Some earn very good livings.
A new data set, released on July 8, 2014, from the Department of Education, also helps flesh out the picture of employment prospects for recent graduates. The data, from the Baccalaureate and Beyond surveys, looked at the employment of 2008 college graduates four years later, in 2012. It found that 7 percent were unemployed and 8 percent had dropped out of the labor force and weren’t looking for work. About 16 percent were in grad school, some of them working part-time, some not. Of the remaining 69 percent who were working and not in grad school, 15 percent were in one or multiple part-time jobs. I think we can all agree, any college graduate in a part-time job is underemployed.
US educators lead the world in overestimating student poverty, which may affect educational mobility
Do educators’ perceptions of how disadvantaged their students are matter? Put another way, when teachers think their students are underprivileged, do they have lower expectations for them, and do their students achieve less at school?
In a July 22, 2014, article “Poverty and the perception of poverty – how both matter for schooling outcomes,” Andreas Schleicher, director of education and skills at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), argues that perceptions often matter more than reality, with distressing consequences. He found that principals in some countries vastly overestimate the poverty level of their students, and their perception of disadvantage negatively correlates with student math achievement. That is, the greater the misperception of poverty, the more likely it is for 15-year-old students’ math scores to be predicted by their actual socio-economic status, and the harder it is for disadvantaged students at the bottom of the socio-economic ladder to score among the top students.
“In countries like France and the United States, perceived disadvantage is far greater than real disadvantage, and it makes a significant difference for student performance,” Schleicher wrote in the article.
Conversely, he found that educators in many top-performing nations greatly underestimate how disadvantaged their students are. Yet the truly disadvantaged students in these nations are more likely to score in the top tier on the PISA math test.
Schleicher’s data analysis mashed together three different data sets: international math test results, teacher surveys and socio-economic indicators. (Footnote: The math test was the OECD’s Program for International Assessment (PISA) given to 15-year-olds around the world. The survey data was from the OECD’s Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS) question 15c. Socio-economic indicators came from the OECD’s own index of economic, social and cultural status (ESCS) that is generated with the PISA test results.)
In the United States, for example, 65 percent of teachers work in middle schools where the principals surveyed said that more than 30 percent of their students come from socieconomically disadvantaged homes, the highest perception-of-poverty rate among the 30 countries analyzed by Schleicher. In reality, only 13 percent of American 15-year-olds come from disadvantaged homes, by OECD calculations. (Footnote: The OECD socio-economic index factors in not only income, but also parental education, educational resources at home and other family possessions. Because the United States is a relatively rich country, many among the 21 percent of school-age children living below the national poverty line are not counted in the low-income bracket by OECD standards, hence the OECD’s seemingly low figure of 13 percent.)
At the same time, Schleicher calculates that only 20 percent of disadvantaged students in the United States are able to score in the top quartile on the PISA math test. In France, it’s about the same. In Israel, another country for which there is a large gulf between perception and reality, only 10 percent of disadvantaged students score among the top in math.
By contrast, the percentage of actually disadvantaged children in Japan and Korea (about 10 percent) is similar to the percentage in the United States — but only 6 percent of Japanese principals and 9 percent of Korean principals report believing that 30 percent of their students are disadvantaged. Six times as many U.S. principals believe the poverty rate is that high. In Croatia, Serbia and Singapore, more than 20 percent of students are actually disadvantaged — much higher than in the United States — yet not more than 7 percent of principals say they have significant populations of disadvantaged students.
(Andreas Schleicher’s bubble chart, reproduced at the top of this story, depicts perception on the horizontal axis and actual disadvantage on the vertical axis. The larger the circle, the more educational inequality there is in that country, i.e., the more a student’s socio-economic status determines his math achievement. Click on the chart to see a larger version).
In Singapore more than half the students from the bottom quarter of the socio-economic spectrum score in the top quarter of the world’s students on PISA. In Japan, 45 percent of disadvantaged students perform better on the PISA test than their backgrounds would predict. That’s remarkable educational mobility: roughly half of the most disadvantaged students in the bottom 25 percent in these countries score in
at the top 25 percent.
This is fascinating. I asked Scheicher how much this analysis hinges upon where you set the poverty level. If the OECD were to set the bar higher, closer to where the U.S. sets its own poverty line, there would not be such a giant gulf between perception and reality. And we could not blame US educators for overestimating poverty so enormously.
Schleicher admits that poverty is a relative measure, which each country defines differently. If the OECD used a higher bar, every nation’s poverty rate would simply be much higher. But American educators would still have the highest perceptions of student poverty. His conclusions about educational opportunity — or lack thereof — for the bottom quartile would still be true.
“Obviously, a child considered poor in the United States may be regarded as relatively wealthy in another country,” he wrote, “but the fact that the perceived problem of socio-economic disadvantage among students is so much greater in the United States – and in France too – than the actual backgrounds of students also suggests that what school principals in some countries consider to be social disadvantage would not be considered such in others.”
The main concern I have about the correlation between perceived poverty and educational opportunity is that U. S. students post mediocre performances on the PISA math test in general. Yes, low-income students don’t do well on PISA test, but most wealthy students don’t, either. And I suspect that U.S. teachers don’t harbor lower expectations for rich Americans!
To help young kids who struggle with math, well-intentioned teachers often turn to non-traditional teaching methods. They use music and movement to involve the whole body. They use hands-on materials such as popsicle sticks to help the students understand tens and hundreds. Or they encourage students to come up with different strategies for solving 7 + 8. One complicated way could be starting with 10 + 10 and then taking 3 away (because 7 is 3 less than 10) and then taking 2 away (because 8 is 2 less than the other 10). After many steps, the right answer emerges. And the students came up with it themselves. Good teaching, right?
A new study concludes that those first-graders who are behind their peers would have learned more if their teachers had just taught them to add and subtract the old-fashioned way. And then practiced it a lot.
The study, Which Instructional Practices Most Help First-Grade Students With and Without Mathematics Difficulties?, was published June 26, 2014 in Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.
Average and above-average students learn about as much with either the innovative or traditional approaches. It doesn’t much matter. But any random classroom is likely to have some strugglers in it; for them, the researcher conclude, traditional, teacher-directed instruction generally yields better results.
The researchers, led by Paul L. Morgan at Pennsylvania State University, analyzed U.S. Department of Education data from about 14,000 students across the United States who entered kindergarten in 1998. They first looked at how the students performed on math tests in kindergarten. The data included teacher surveys, allowing the researchers to track the methods that the kids’ subsequent first-grade teachers said they used. And finally, they had the students’ first-grade math scores.
The researchers found that the higher the number of struggling students, who scored in the bottom 15 percent in kindergarten, in a first-grade teacher’s classroom, the more likely the teachers were to use manipulatives (hands-on materials), calculators, music and movement (See Table 3 on page 12 in the study). The fewer the struggling students, the more likely that teachers stuck with traditional methods, such as showing the whole class how to solve something one way from the chalkboard and then having students practice the method using worksheets.
Yet, at the end of first grade, the researchers found that struggling students who were given traditional instruction posted significantly higher math score gains than the struggling students who had been taught by the progressive methods. Gains are measured by how much students math scores rose between kindergarten and the end of first grade. (See Table 5 on page 15 in the study.)
“Routine practice is the strongest educational practice that teachers can use in their classroom to promote achievement gains,” Morgan said.
Although many educators dismiss rote learning as both boring and bad, Morgan believes it has its place. “Given my interest in children at risk, it’s a troubling observation that teachers are mismatching their instruction to what children with learning difficulties might benefit from,” Morgan said. “These kids with low math achievement in kindergarten are likely to struggle throughout elementary school and beyond. These kids are really at risk.”
Understanding why the more innovative methods didn’t work spectacularly is a matter of conjecture. Morgan theorizes that, just as children need to practice reading a lot and become fluent readers before they can analyze texts, math students need to become fluent with basic operations before they can talk about multiple methods for solving problems or arrive at deep conceptual understandings. “Maybe children with learning difficulties need more practice,” he said.
Innovative methods can also be more challenging to implement properly, and it could be that many teachers aren’t doing them right. It’s not easy to facilitate a math discussion. Six-year-olds are prone to goof around and stick popsicle sticks in their ears, taking away from precious teaching time. Instructional time can be lost while a teacher is setting up a musical lesson.
Does this mean we should all be drilling our first graders with Kumon worksheets? Morgan says not. “I don’t want kids going to school and doing worksheets all day. We all want kids to view mathematics as something that’s interesting and engaging and useful,” he said. “At the same time, we don’t want to be providing instruction to kids that doesn’t have empirical evidence that it’s effective.”
Then what’s a teacher to do? I’ll leave it to others to figure out how to make routine methods engaging.
Conventional wisdom has it that young men and women tend to earn similar wages as young adults, but that the male-female gap widens a lot with age, especially as women “lean out” during their child-bearing years. The Pew Research Center, for example, calculated that young adult women (ages 25-34) earned 93 cents for each dollar that her male counterpart earned in 2012. Near parity.
But the latest data from the U.S. Department of Education, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of 17,110 students who graduated in the 2007-2008 academic year, found that college-graduate women aren’t making anywhere near as much as their male counterparts are four years after college graduation.
The men who were in full time jobs made $57,800 on average. The women in full time jobs made $47,400 on average. In other words, these women, most of them unmarried and without children, were earning only 82 cents for each dollar that a man was in 2012.
The data, from the Baccalaureate and Beyond surveys, comes from the third group of college graduates that the United States Department of Education is tracking to see what happens in labor markets after college. This third group was first surveyed a year after graduation, in 2009. A second survey followed up four years after graduation, in 2012, and some of the data, largely focusing on post-college employment and wages, were released on July 8, 2014.
Women’s lower earnings defy easy explanation.
Part of the answer is that women and men tend to major in different subjects and go into different fields. Women are far more likely to pursue degrees in education and nursing, two fields which tend to be dominated by unionized jobs with low starting salaries. Higher salaries that come with seniority generally kick in after four years. Meanwhile, men are more likely to major in engineering, which is the major that produced the highest paying post-college jobs. College graduates who majored in engineering and were working full time earned $73,700 a year on average. Healthcare majors made $58,900 and education majors made $40,500.
Majors of 2008 Graduates by Gender (percent of each gender majoring in that subject)
|1||Business (20%)||Business (28%)|
|2||Social sciences (17%)||Other Applied (14%)|
|3||Other Applied (16%)||Social Sciences (13%)|
|4||Humanities (12%)||Engineering (12%)|
|5||Education (12%)||Humanities (11%)|
|6||Healthcare fields (11%)||Bio and phys science, sci tech, math and agriculture (9%)|
|7||Bio and phys science, sci tech, math and agriculture (7%)||Computer and IT (5%)|
|8||General studies and other (3%)||Education (4%)|
|9||Engineering (2%)||General studies and other (3%)|
|10||Computer and IT (1%)||Healthcare fields (2%)|
Source: Computed using National Center for Education Statistics QuickStats and data from 2008/12 Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study (B&B:08/12)
But that is only part of the story. When you break the salary data down by major and gender (using the Department of Education’s Quickstat data analysis tool), you see giant wage discrepancies among men and women who majored in the same subjects. The chart I created on this page shows that young male engineers make more than young female engineers ($73,000 vs. $65,000)*. Young male computer programers make more than young female computer programers ($71,000 vs. $60,000). There’s even a big gender gap for social sciences majors ($51,000 vs. $40,000) and general studies majors ($64,000 vs. $44,000). However, the pay gap virtually disappears in education ($41,000 vs. $39,000) and health care ($59,000 vs. $56,000).
Using the Powerstats data analysis tool, I dug into the data more to look at the interplay of race and gender. And there are some startling results. Asian women were earning almost $53,000 a year — more than either black or Latino men and not far behind white men. Black men earned $52,000. Latino men earned $47,000. The top earners were Asian men at $63,000, followed by white men at $57,000. White, black and Latino women are closely clustered together, making $45,000, $43,000 and $44,000, respectively.
I was curious if child rearing was having an effect on this data. For an apples-to-apples comparison, I created a second Powerstats chart to isolate only childless men and women. Some were married. Some were not. The wage levels and differentials described above remained. Even childless women earn far less than childless men. Asians earn more than other races. Black men fare better than Latino men.
It is possible that some of these salary gaps are the quirks of a four-year check up after college. Many of the graduates who will be the highest earners over the course of their lifetimes are in graduate school, earning their JD’s, MD’s and MBA’s. As full-time students, they’re excluded from the full-time employment data. And that means the data is a bit skewed by the people who go into high-paying fields that don’t require graduate degrees, such as engineering and computer science. Perhaps, once all the female lawyers and doctors join the workforce a few years from now, the gender pay gap will narrow some.
Data notes: I filtered the data to capture only students who are working more than 34 hours a week in one primary job. It does not include students who were in graduate school in 2012. All the salary figures are rounded to the nearest thousand. The numbers generated through the statistical tools do not add up exactly to the numbers in the published 2008/12 Baccalaureate and Beyond report. For example, the breakdown of male salaries by major show that men of all 10 majors had an average full time salary of almost $56,000. The report says that male salaries were almost $58,000. That may be due to some differences in weighting.
* This and subsequent salary data rounded to the nearest thousand dollars
New York State education policy makers had a difficult task when they sat down to grade the first high school Regents exams linked to the Common Core standards, in algebra and English, last month. They needed to establish a high bar for meeting the new education standards, yet at the same time protect current students, who haven’t had much Common Core instruction, from punishment. And the Regents are high stakes tests: New York students must pass five of them to graduate from high school.
New York risked a high school dropout crisis if they set the bar too high. But setting the bar too low invites criticism that the new Common Core standards are hollow. “That ends up signaling to teachers that you don’t actually need to know the content,” said Kathleen Porter Magee, a Common Core proponent at the conservative Thomas B. Fordham Institute.
Which is why policy makers fussed over the fine-tuning of cut scores — that is, the numerical point where the cut is made between passing and failing.
At the end of June, the Board of Regents released documents showing how they had calculated two different cut scores that effectively split the baby. They set one passing score for today — one that the majority of students can already attain – and a second passing mark for the future, showing how far students must progress to be ready for introductory college classes.
Only 22.1 percent of New York’s algebra students — mostly eighth and ninth graders — hit that aspirational mark in June. In English, it was much better, with 46.8 percent of the 11th graders who took the test hitting the college-ready mark. The class of 2022, currently about to enter fifth grade, will be required to hit these higher thresholds to pass and graduate. That’s a tall order in education, where progress is usually slow and incremental.
Originally, New York State had planned to require students to hit the college-ready mark on this first go-around. But after the uproar over low passing rates for New York’s first Common Core tests for elementary and middle school students, in 2013, Regents officials backed down in February of 2014 and created a safe harbor for current students. After students took the new tests on June 3, scorers were told to make sure that the passing rates didn’t differ from previous years.
In the June documents (on page 55) the Regents noted that the historical pass rates for algebra exams had ranged from 64.5 percent to 74.6 percent, but they chose a pass rate of 65.4 percent for June 2014. While a peculiar and notably low number, it allowed the Regents Board not to lower the floor too much on current students. When New York lined up all the student test results from lowest to highest, 65.4 percent of students had been able to get at least 30 out of 86 questions correct. If the Regents had lifted the new required pass rate any higher than 65.4, they’d have had to pass students who got fewer than 30 correct answers.
“They’ve never had to do that before; it would have been humiliating for them,” said Carol Burris, the principal of a high performing high school in Rockville Centre on Long Island, and an outspoken critic of the state’s approach to testing.
Meanwhile, the Regents used their traditional approach for setting two higher levels of passing scores. They assembled a panel of educators who took the math test and pooled their collective judgment. The educators decided that students ought to have gotten 54 of 86 questions correct to meet the new Common Core standards (the college-ready threshold mentioned above) and 73 questions correct to prove “mastery” of those new standards. Only 3.8 percent of New York’s eighth and ninth graders hit the mastery level on the new algebra exam, compared with more than 15 percent on the easier pre-Common Core exam. The graphic on the upper right corner shows how much tougher it is to be excellent in the new Common Core universe. (Click on it to see a larger version).
To understand how unusual the new Common Core Regents grading curve is, imagine a 10-question test, where you need to get 3.5 questions right to pass, but 6 right to get a B, and 8.5 right to get an A. On the old test, by comparison, you would have needed a similar 3.4 to pass, but only 4.5 correct to get a B, and 7.5 to hit the A. (I calculated these thresholds from Regents conversion charts here and here).
On the English exam, the Regents did almost the opposite. They picked a notably high pass rate of 76.6 percent on their historical range of 69.9 percent to 78 per cent. But then they used a complicated process of overweighting the writing questions so that students could still pass, even if they bombed the multiple-choice reading comprehension section. Burris, the Rockville Centre principal, pointed out that you could still pass if you got as few as 5 out of the 24 multiple-choice questions correct — that’s worse that random guessing.
Indeed, the passing bar was so low for the Common Core English exam that there were reports that some students who failed the old exam (also administered in June) were able to pass the Common Core version. By all accounts, the Common Core English exam, modeled after the English Advanced Placement exam, was much tougher, with triple the amount of reading than previous English Regents exams — but easier to pass, because it was graded more leniently.
Perhaps the reason for selecting an easier pass bar for English has to do with the types of students who took this exam. Unlike the algebra exam, which the state required for every first-time algebra student, the new Common Core English Regents test for 11th graders was voluntary. (Students could take one or the other, or both.) Burris, for example, opted to give only the old pre-Common Core exam to her students. She said her informal survey of other Long Island principals found many had done the same thing. Those who did give their students the new Common Core English exam often gave it only to their honors and advanced students, she said.
If Burris is right, that means scores could be even lower two years from now, when the full student population takes the new exam. And it will be just as steep a mountain to get New York’s high schoolers college ready in English as it will be in math.
Teachers who say they get included in school decision-making and collaborate often with other teachers are more likely to say that teaching is a valued profession in their society. In turn, these same teachers report higher levels of job satisfaction and confidence in their ability to teach and to motivate students, according to a 2013 survey of middle-school teachers in 34 countries and regions around the world conducted by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and published on June 25, 2014.
The TALIS survey included class sizes, but OECD analysts found no correlation between class size and job satisfaction. Indeed, some of the higher performing nations with the highest teacher job satisfaction rates have some of the larger class sizes. The TALIS report found that the size of a random class in the United States was 27 students, compared with 36 in Singapore and 32 in Korea.
More important to teacher satisfaction than class size is the type of student in his classroom. The more behavioral problems and low-peforming students in the class, the more unhappy a teacher was. But the OECD also said these negative effects were mitigated in schools that had a supportive, collaborative atmosphere to help teachers handle behavioral disruptions. Interestingly, analysts also found no correlation between class size and behavioral disruptions. In other words, larger classes were not necessarily more difficult.
Whether teachers who feel valued by society actually teach better is unclear from the survey. But Belanger argues that it’s still important for teachers to feel that their profession is valued. “There’s a bigger picture,” she said. “With TALIS, what we’re trying to do is develop teaching as an attractive profession. If teaching is valued, it’s easier to recruit top candidates into the profession.”
This second TALIS survey was the first year that the United States participated in the OECD teacher survey. For a more detailed report of American teachers, click here.
*The top 10 in math on the most recent PISA test were (1) Shanghai, (2) Singapore, (3) Hong Kong, (4) Taipei, (5) Korea, (6) Macao, (7) Japan, (8) Lichtenstein, (9) Switzerland and (10) the Netherlands. In reading, they were (1) Shanghai, (2) Hong Kong, (3) Singapore, (4) Japan, (5) Korea, (6) Finland, (7) Canada, Ireland, Taipei and (10) Poland. (Canada, Ireland and Taipei had identical scores.)
Online education has grown so fast that more than a third of all college students — more than 7 million — took at least one course online in 2012. That’s according to the most recent 2014 annual survey by the Babson Research Group, which has been tracking online education growth since 2002. Yet nagging worries remain about whether an online education is a substandard education.
The Babson survey itself noted that even as more students are taking online courses, the growth rate is slowing and some university leaders are becoming more skeptical about how much students are really learning. For example, the percent of academic leaders who say that online education is the same or superior to face-to-face instruction dipped to 74 percent from 77 percent. That was the first reversal in a decade-long trend of rising optimism.
Opinions are one thing, but what do we actually know about online learning outcomes? Unfortunately, there have been thousands of studies, but precious few that meet scientific rigor. One big problem is that not many studies have randomly assigned some students to online courses and others to traditional classes. Without random assignment, it’s quite possible that the kinds of students who choose to take online courses are different from the kinds of students who enroll in traditional courses. Perhaps, for example, students who sign up for online classes are more likely to be motivated autodidacts who would learn more in any environment. Researchers can’t conclude if online learning is better or worse if the student characteristics are different in online courses at the onset.
On June 3, 2014, an important study, “Interactive learning online at public universities: Evidence from a six-campus randomized trial,” published earlier in Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, won the highest rating for scientific rigor from What Works Clearinghouse, a division inside the Department of Education that seeks evidence for which teaching practices work. The study was written by a team of education researchers led by economist William G. Bowen, the former president of Princeton University and the Andrew Mellon Foundation, and Matthew M. Chingos of the Brookings Institution.
The online study looked at more than 600 students who were randomly assigned to introductory statistics classes at six different university campuses. Half took an online stats class developed by Carnegie Mellon University, supplemented by one hour a week of face-to-face time with an instructor. The other half took traditional stats classes that met for three hours a week with an instructor. The authors of the study found that learning outcomes were essentially the same. About 80 percent of the online students passed the course, compared with 76 percent of the face-to-face students, which, allowing for statistical measurement errors, is virtually identical.
The university campuses that participated in the fall 2011 trial were the University at Albany (SUNY), SUNY Institute of Technology, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Towson University (University of Maryland), Baruch College (CUNY) and City College (CUNY).
It’s worth emphasizing that this was not a pure online class, but a hybrid one. One hour a week of face-to-face time with an instructor amounts to a third of the face-to-face time in the control group. Also, the Carnegie Mellon course not only required students to crunch data themselves using a statistical software package, but it also embedded interactive assessments into each instructional activity. The software gives feedback to both the student and the instructor to let them know how well the student understood each concept. However, the Carnegie Mellon software didn’t tailor instruction for each student. For example, if students answered questions incorrectly, the software didn’t direct them to extra practice problems or reading.
“We believe it is an early representative of what will likely be a wave of even more sophisticated systems in the not-distant future,” the authors wrote.
The Department of Education reviewed only the analysis of passing rates in the Carnegie Mellon stats class trial. But Bowen and the study’s authors went further, and found that final exam scores and performance on a standardized assessment of statistical literacy were also similar between the students who took the class in person and online. They also conducted several speculative cost simulations and found that hybrid models of instruction could save universities a lot of money in instructor costs in large introductory courses in the long run.
But in the end, the authors offer this sobering conclusion:
In the case of a topic as active as online learning, where millions of dollars are being invested by a wide variety of entities, we might expect inflated claims of spectacular successes. The findings in this study warn against too much hype. To the best of our knowledge, there is no compelling evidence that online learning systems available today—not even highly interactive systems, of which there are very few—can in fact deliver improved educational outcomes across the board, at scale, on campuses other than the one where the system was born, and on a sustainable basis. This is not to deny, however, that these systems have great potential. Vigorous efforts should be made to continue to explore and assess uses of both the relatively simple systems that are proliferating, often to good effect, and more sophisticated systems that are still in their infancy. There is every reason to expect these systems to improve over time, and thus it is not unreasonable to speculate that learning outcomes will also improve.